A Practical Guide To Hockey Analytics And Game State

Faceoffs and zone starts are two of the most discussed details in hockey data. Both describe where and how a shift begins, and both can be misleading if taken out of context. A short tour of how they work helps put them in their place.

Starting points

A zone start records where on the ice a shift began: in the offensive zone, the defensive zone or the neutral zone. A player who starts most of his shifts in the offensive zone has an easier job than one who starts in his own end, because the puck is already closer to the opponent's net. Coaches know this and often use certain players for defensive faceoffs and others for offensive ones.

Faceoff percentage records how often a player wins the draw. A strong centre may win a high share, which gives his team early possession, but the value of one faceoff is small. The puck is often lost again within seconds, so even a very good faceoff player adds little over a season in the way of goals.

When you look at how the National Casino Canada platform presents faceoff and zone figures next to the live score, it becomes an example of a question worth asking about any page: does the number explain a shift, or only decorate it?

A concrete picture is useful. A checking-line centre who starts most shifts in his own end and still keeps the other side from scoring is doing work that no shot total rewards.

Keeping it in proportion

Zone starts are best used to adjust other statistics. A player with poor shot numbers who starts mostly in the defensive zone may be doing a valuable job. Another with excellent numbers who starts mostly in the offensive zone may be benefiting from his role. Comparing players of similar usage gives a fairer picture. Faceoffs also matter at specific moments. A draw won in the defensive zone after an icing call, with the tired players unable to change, can matter more than one won at centre ice. Context once more changes the value of a number. Usage is a fact of the game, not a flaw in the player.

If betting markets are part of how you follow hockey, a faceoff statistic can look like a clue. A budget, a time limit and a pause before any wager keep it in proportion, since the draw is one small event in a long game.

Faceoff and zone data explain how shifts begin. They help us read a game, and they leave the outcome open.